The Arms Control and Disarmament Centre (ACDC) at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) hosted a high-level roundtable discussion today titled “India’s Sea-Based Nuclear Capabilities: Implications for Pakistan.” The event brought together prominent strategic experts, diplomats, and military analysts to examine the qualitative shift in South Asia’s deterrence architecture following the operational deployment of India’s sea-based nuclear arsenal.
In his welcome remarks, Ambassador Khalid Mehmood, Chairman of the Board of Governors ISSI, emphasized the gravity of the evolving regional security dynamics. Highlighting the critical strategic challenges, he stated that the operationalization of India’s sea-based nuclear deterrent marked a qualitative and structural shift in regional security. He further added that these developments demand a clear-eyed reassessment of both deterrence postures and diplomatic frameworks to safeguard regional peace and stability.
Earlier, Malik Qasim Mustafa, Director of ACDC, opened the session by outlining the scope of the discussion and welcoming the participants. He highlighted that the profound disruption to South Asian strategic stability would require a rigorous evaluation of the potential doctrinal and technological posture adjustments necessary for Pakistan to maintain a credible deterrent.
Setting the agenda for the roundtable, Ms. Ghazala Yasmin Jalil, Research Fellow at ACDC, highlighted the profound structural turning points confronting the region – from recessed deterrence to mated warheads. She raised vital questions regarding how Pakistan can preserve robust, Full Spectrum Deterrence without slipping into an expensive, open-ended naval arms race, suggesting that ultimate security lies in negotiating robust maritime Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs).
The event featured detailed thematic evaluations from a panel of distinguished strategic thinkers. Vice Admiral (Retd.) Dr. Ahmed Saeed HI(M), former President of the National Institute of Maritime Affairs (NIMA), highlighted the growing strategic imbalance in the Indian Ocean driven by India’s massive investment in acquiring advanced conventional and nuclear submarines (SSBNs). He warned that this rapid naval expansion creates a severe defence asymmetry that lowers the nuclear threshold and heightens the risk of inadvertent escalation between two contiguous nuclear-armed states. To mitigate these maritime risks and prevent an unchecked arms race, Admiral Saeed advocated for robust bilateral Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) alongside a renewed diplomatic push to declare the Indian Ocean a non-nuclear domain, concluding that maritime nuclear conflict offers no path to military victory and demands mutual strategic restraint.
Ambassador (Retd.) Zamir Akram, Advisor to the Strategic Plans Division (SPD), warned that India’s rapid vertical proliferation is driving a dangerous shift away from its “No First Use” policy toward a pre-emptive first-strike posture aimed at neutralizing Pakistan’s Full Spectrum Deterrence. Dismissing the notion that these assets are solely directed at China, he highlighted the “deafening silence” and double standards of the international community regarding India’s expanding sea-based capabilities. This development poses a threat extending far beyond South Asia and actively undermines strategic stability at both the regional and global levels. To counter this, Ambassador Akram urged Pakistan to expose India’s irresponsible nuclear behavior in the global arena, establish robust crisis-management mechanisms rather than relying on weak bilateral deals, and reinforce its defensive posture by fully operationalizing and deploying nuclear warheads across its land, air, and sea-based triad to guarantee a credible, survival-assured second-strike capability.
Air Commodore (Retd) Khalid Banuri, Senior Advisor JCCL, Air Headquarters, said that in a major structural shift for South Asian deterrence, India’s transition to a permanently mated sea-based nuclear presence had effectively compressed political-military decision-making windows to a frightening degree, eroding traditional peacetime buffers to zero. He unpacked the escalating crisis instability risks, emphasizing that the opacity of the sea leg entangles conventional and nuclear signaling, heavily raising the danger of unintended escalation and inadvertent launch. With India’s “No First Use” doctrine rendered practically meaningless under this new posture, Pakistan’s credible deterrence faces severe strain, compounded by fiscal constraints and the destabilizing integration of emerging technologies. To preserve strategic stability and avoid a ruinous arms race, he suggested that Pakistan’s optimal response must combine the pursuit of modern technologies, a survivable and strengthened second-strike capability, and proactive diplomatic initiatives.
Dr. Aqeel Akhtar discussed the security dilemma surrounding sea-based nuclear deterrence, emphasizing that the growing deployment of nuclear submarines introduces new challenges for command and control, crisis communication, and strategic stability. Looking ahead, he stressed the importance of strengthening secure communication systems, reducing the risks of miscalculation, and developing robust safeguards to prevent inadvertent escalation in an increasingly complex maritime security environment.
The presentations were followed by an interactive open discussion session, where members of the strategic community, academia, and media engaged on the policy choices available to Pakistan to maintain strategic equilibrium.